Population growth




In biology or human geography, population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population.


Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually,[1] or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.616 billion[2] in 2018. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.[3] Many nations with rapid population growth have low standards of living, whereas many nations with low rates of population growth have high standards of living.[4]

































































Population[5]
Years passed
 Year
 Billion
– 1800 1
127 1927 2
33 1960 3
14 1974 4
13 1987 5
12 1999 6
12 2011 7
12
2023*		 8
14
2037*		 9
18
2055*		 10
33
2088*		 11

*World Population Prospects 2017
(United Nations Population Division)



Contents






  • 1 History


  • 2 Population growth rate


    • 2.1 Logistic equation




  • 3 Human population growth rate


  • 4 Growth by country


  • 5 Growth by region


  • 6 Into the future


  • 7 See also


  • 8 References


  • 9 External links





History


Population began growing rapidly in the Western world early in the industrial revolution of the late 18th century. The reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"[6] were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:



  1. McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality,[7][8]

  2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,

  3. His most controversial idea, at least his most disputed idea, was that he questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine,[9]

  4. The sometime fierce disputes that his publication provoked around the "McKeown thesis", have overshadowed his more important and largely unchallenged argument that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century[7] but also until well into the 20th century.[10]


Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.[11] His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as 'the founder of social medicine'.[12]



Population growth rate


The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:


Population growth rate=P(t2)−P(t1)P(t1)(t2−t1){displaystyle Population growth rate={frac {P(t_{2})-P(t_{1})}{P(t_{1})(t_{2}-t_{1})}}}Population growth rate={frac {P(t_{2})-P(t_{1})}{P(t_{1})(t_{2}-t_{1})}}

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.[13]


A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.


Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources.[14]




The logistic growth of a population.



Logistic equation


The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation[15]


dPdt=kP(1−PK),{displaystyle {frac {dP}{dt}}=kPleft(1-{frac {P}{K}}right),}{displaystyle {frac {dP}{dt}}=kPleft(1-{frac {P}{K}}right),}

where




  • P(t){displaystyle P(t)}P(t) = the population after time t;


  • t{displaystyle t}t = time a population grows;


  • k{displaystyle k}k = the relative growth rate coefficient;


  • K{displaystyle K}K = the carrying capacity of the population; defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain.[14]


As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:



P(t)=K1+Ae−rt{displaystyle P(t)={frac {K}{1+Ae^{-rt}}}}{displaystyle P(t)={frac {K}{1+Ae^{-rt}}}},

where A=K−P0P0{displaystyle A={frac {K-P_{0}}{P_{0}}}}A={frac {K-P_{0}}{P_{0}}} and P0{displaystyle P_{0}}P_{0} is the initial population at time 0.



Human population growth rate


Further information: Total fertility rate, World population estimates, and Human overpopulation



A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World Factbook's 2016 data








Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.




World population growth rates between 1950–2050


In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[16] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.[17] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity[18] made possible by the Green Revolution.


The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million.[16] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in poverty-stricken countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.[19]


In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.[20] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005; it now has the highest standard of living in the world.[21]


The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline.[22] A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.[23]



Growth by country


Main article: List of countries by population growth rate

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.[24] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).[24]


























































































Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
Rank
 Country
 Population
2010
 Population
1990
 Growth (%)
1990–2010


  World
 6,895,889,000
 5,306,425,000
 30.0%
1
 China
 1,341,335,000
 1,145,195,000
 17.1%
2
 India
 1,224,614,000
 873,785,000
 40.2%
3
 United States
 310,384,000
 253,339,000
 22.5%
4
 Indonesia
 239,871,000
 184,346,000
 30.1%
5
 Brazil
 194,946,000
 149,650,000
 30.3%
6
 Pakistan
 173,593,000
 111,845,000
 55.3%
7
 Nigeria
 158,423,000
 97,552,000
 62.4%
8
 Bangladesh
 148,692,000
 105,256,000
 41.3%
9
 Russia
 142,958,000
 148,244,000
 -3.6%
10
 Japan
 128,057,000
 122,251,000
 4.7%

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,[25] further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.


The following table gives some example countries:

























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Example nation 1967 population 1990 population 1994 population 2002 population 2008 population Life expectancy in years (2008) Total population growth from 1960s to 2007- 2011

Eritrea*		 N/A* N/A* 3,437,000[26]
 4,298,269 5,673,520[27]
 61[28][28]
 2,236,520

Ethiopia*		 23,457,000*[29]
 50,974,000* [30]
 54,939,000[26]
 67,673,031(2003) 79,221,000[31]
 55[28]
 55,764,000
Sudan 14,355,000†[29]
 25,204,000† [30]
 27,361,000†[26]
 38,114,160 (2003)† 42,272,000†[27]
 50†[28]
 27,917,000
Chad 3,410,000[29]
 5,679,000[30]
 6,183,000[26]
 9,253,493(2003) 10,329,208 (2009)[25]
 47[28]
 6,919,205
Niger 3,546,000[29]
 7,732,000[30]
 8,846,000[26]
 10,790,352 (2001) 15,306,252 (2009)[32]
 44[28]
 11,760,252
Nigeria 61,450,000[29]
 88,500,000[30]
 108,467,000[26]
 129,934,911 158,259,000[27]
 47[28]
 96,809,000
Mali 4,745,000[29]
 8,156,000[30]
 10,462,000[26]
 11,340,480 14,517,176(2010)[33]
 50[28]
 9,772,176
Mauritania 1,050,000[29]
 2,025,000 [30]
 2,211,000[26]
 2,667,859 (2003) 3,291,000 (2009)[25]
 54[28]
 2,241,000
Senegal 3,607,000[29]
 7,327,000[30]
 8,102,000[26]
 9,967,215 13,711,597 (2009)[34]
 57[28]
 10,104,597
Gambia 343,000[29]
 861,000[30]
 1,081,000[26]
 1,367,124 (2000) 1,705,000[27]
 55[28]
 1,362,000
Algeria 11,833,126 (1966)[29]
 25,012,000[30]
 27,325,000 [26]
 32,818,500 (2003) 34,895,000[31][35]
 74[28]
 23,061,874

The DRC/Zaire
 16,353,000[29]
 35,562,000[30]
 42,552,000[26]
 55,225,478 (2003) 70,916,439 [31][36]
 54[28]
 54,563,439
Egypt 30,083,419 (1966)[29]
 53,153,000[30]
 58,326,000[26]
 70,712,345 (2003) 79,089,650 [31][37][37]
 72[28]
 49,006,231

Réunion (overseas region of France)		 418,000[29]
 N/A[30]
 N/A[26]
 720,934 (2003) 827,000 (2009) [27]
 N/A[28]
 409,000
The Falkland Islands (British Overseas Territory) 2,500[29]
 N/A[30]
 N/A[26]
 2,967 (2003) 3,140(2010)[38]
 N/A[28]
 640
Chile 8,935,500[29]
 13,173,000[30]
 13,994,000[26]
 15,116,435 17,224,200 (2011) 77[28]
 8,288,700
Colombia 19,191,000[29]
 32,987,000[30]
 34,520,000[26]
 41,088,227 45,925,397 (2010)[39]
 73[28]
 26,734,397
Brazil 85,655,000[29]
 150,368,000[30]
 153,725,000[26]
 174,468,575 (2000) 190,732,694 (2010) [40]
 72[28]
 105,077,694
Mexico 45,671,000[29]
 86,154,000[30]
 93,008,000[26]
 103,400,165 (2000) 112,322,757 (2010)[41]
 76[28]
 66,651,757
Fiji 476,727 (1966)[29]
 765,000[30]
 771,000[26]
 844,330 (2001) 849,000[35] (2010) 70[28]
 372,273
Nauru 6,050 (1966)[29]
 10,000[30]
 N/A[26]
 12,329 9,322 (2011)[42]
 N/A[28]
 3,272
Jamaica 1,876,000[29]
 2,420,000[30]
 2,429,000[26]
 2,695,867 (2003) 2,847,232[43](2010) 74[28]
 971,232
Australia 11,540,764 (1964)[29]
 17,086,000[30]
 17,843,000[26]
 19,546,792 (2003) 25,035,380[44] (2010) 82[28]
 10,066,508
Albania 1,965,500 (1964)[29]
 3,250,000[30]
 3,414,000[26]
 3,510,484 2,986,952 (July 2010 est.)[25][45]
 78[28]
 1,021,452
Poland 31,944,000[29]
 38,180,000[30]
 38,554,000[26]
 38,626,349 (2001) 38,192,000 (2010)[46]
 75[28]
 6,248,000
Hungary 10,212,000[29]
 10,553,000[30]
 10,261,000[26]
 10,106,017 9,979,000 (2010)[47]
 73[28]
 -142,000
Bulgaria 8,226,564 (1965)[29]
 8,980,000[30]
 8,443,000[26]
 7,707,495(2000) 7,351,234 (2011)[48]
 73[28]
 -875,330
United Kingdom 55,068,000 (1966)[29]
 57,411,000[30]
 58,091,000[26]
 58,789,194 62,008,048 (2010)[49]
 79[28]
 7,020,048
Ireland 2,884,002 (1966)[29]
 3,503,000[30]
 3,571,000[26]
 3,840,838 (2000) 4,470,700[50] (2010) 78[28]
 1,586,698
People's Republic of China 720,000,000[29]
 1,139,060,000[30]
 1,208,841,000[26]
 1,286,975,468 (2004) 1,339,724,852 (2010)[51]
 73[28]
 619,724,852
Japan‡ 98,274,961 (1965)[29]
 123,537,000[30]
 124,961,000[26]
 127,333,002 127,420,000 (2010)[52]
 82[28]
 28,123,865

Ryukyu Islands (Once occupied by the United States)‡		 934,176 (1965)[29]
 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
India# 511,115,000[29]
 843,931,000[30]
 918,570,000[26]
 1,028,610,328 (2001) 1,210,193,422 (2011)[53]
 69[28]
 699,078,422
Singapore 1,956,000 (1967)[29]
 3,003,000 (1990) [30]
 2,930,000 (1994)[26]
 4,452,732 (2002) 5,076,700 (2010)[54]
 82 (2008)[28]
 3,120,700

Sikkim#		 183,000 (1967)[29]
 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Monaco 24,000 (1967)[29]
 29,000 (1990) [30]
 N/A (1994)[26]
 31,842 (2000) 35,586[55] (2010) (2008)[28]
 11,586
Greece 8,716,000 (1967)[29]
 10,123,000 (1990) [30]
 10,426,000 (1994)[26]
 10,964,020 (2001)[56]
 11,305,118 (2011)[57]
 N/A (2008)[28]
 2,589,118

Faroe Islands (Danish dependency)		 38,000 (1967)[29]
 N/A (1990) [30]
 N/A (1994)[26]
 46,345 (2000) 48,917 (2010) [58]
 N/A (2008)[28]
 18,917
Liechtenstein 20,000 (1967)[29]
 29,000 (1990) [30]
 N/A (1994)[26]
 33,307 (2000) 35,789 (2009)[59]
 (2008)[28]
 15,789
South Korea 29,207,856 (1966)[29]
 42,793,000 (1990) [30]
 44,453,000 (1994)[26]
 48,324,000 (2003) 48,875,000 (2010) [60]
 (2008)[28]
 19,667,144
North Korea 12,700,000 (1967)[29]
 21,773,000 (1990) [30]
 23,483,000 (1994)[26]
 22,224,195 (2002) 24,051,218 (2010)[61]
 (2008)[28]
 11,351,218
Brunei 107,200 (1967)[29]
 266,000 (1990) [30]
 280,000 (1994)[26]
 332,844 (2001) 401,890 (2011)[62]
 76 (2008)[28]
 306,609
Malaysia 10,671,000 (1967)[29]
 17,861,000 (1990) [30]
 19,489,000 (1994)[26]
 21,793,293 (2002) 27,565,821 (2010)[63]
 (2008)[28]
 16,894,821
Thailand 32,680,000 (1967)[29]
 57,196,000 (1990) [30]
 59,396,000 (1994)[26]
 60,606,947 (2000)[64]
 63,878,267 (2011)[65]
 (2008)[28]
 31,198,267
Lebanon 2,520,000 (1967)[29]
 2,701,000 (1990) [30]
 2,915,000 (1994)[26]
 3,727,703[66] (2003) 4,224,000[27] (2009) - (2008)[28]
Syria 5,600,000 (1967)[29]
 12,116,000 (1990) [30]
 13,844,000 (1994)[26]
 17,585,540 (2003) 22,457,763 (2011)[67]
 -(2008)[28]
Bahrain 182,00 (1967)[29]
 503,000 (1990) [30]
 549,000 (1994)[26]
 667,238 (2003) 1,234,596[68] (2010) 75 (2008)[28]
Sri Lanka 11,741,000 (1967)[29]
 16,993,000 (1990) [30]
 17,685,000 (1994)[26]
 19,607,519 (2002) 20,238,000[35] (2009) - (2008)[28]
Switzerland 6,050,000 (1967)[29]
 6.712,000 (1990) [30]
 6,994,000 (1994)[26]
 7,261,200 (2002) 7,866,500[69] (2010) - (2008)[28]
Luxembourg 335,000 (1967)[29]
 381,000 (1990) [30]
 401,000 (1994)[26]
 439,539 (2001) 511,840 (2011)[70]
 - (2008)[28]
Romania 19,105,056 (1966)[29]
 23,200,000 (1990)[30]
 22,736,000 (1994)[26]
 21,680,974 (2002) 21,466,174[71] (2011) - (2008)[28]

Niuē (associated state of New Zealand)		 1,900 (1966)[29]
 N/A (1990)[30]
 N/A (1994)[26]
 2,134 (2002) 1,398 (2009)[72]
 N/A (2008)[28]
 -502

Tokelau (New Zealand territory)		 5,194 (1966)[29]
 N/A (1990)[30]
 N/A (1994)[26]
 1,445 (2001) 1,416 (2009) N/A (2008)[28]
 -3,778
Jamaica 1,876,000 (1967)[29]
 2,420,000 (1990) [30]
 2,429,000 (1994)[26]
 2,695,867 (2003) 2,847,232[43] (2010) 74 (2008)[28]
 971,232
Argentina 32,031,000 (1967)[29]
 32,322,000 (1990)[30]
 34,180,000 (1994)[26]
 37,812,817 (2002) 40,091,359 (2010) 74 (2008)[28]
 8,060,359
France 49,890,660 (1967)[29]
 56,440,000 (1990)[30]
 57,747,000 (1994)[26]
 59,551,000 (2001) 63,136,180 (2011)[73]
 81 (2008)[28]
Italy 52,334,000 (1967)[29]
 57,662,000 (1990)[30]
 57,193,000 (1994)[26]
 56,995,744 (2002) 60,605,053[74] (2011) 80 (2008)[28]
Mauritius 774,000 (1967)[29]
 1,075,000 (1990)[30]
 1,104,000 (1994)[26]
 1,179,137 (2000) 1,288,000 (2009)[35]
 75 (2008)[28]
 514,000
Guatemala 4,717,000 (1967)[29]
 9,197,000 (1990)[30]
 10,322,000 (1994)[26]
 12,974,361 (2000) 13,276,517 (2009) 70 (2008)[28]
 8,559,517
Cuba 8,033,000 (1967)[29]
 10,609,000 (1990)[30]
 10,960,000 (1994)[26]
 11,177,743 (2002) 11,239,363 (2009)[75]
 77 (2008)[28]
Barbados 246,000 (1967)[29]
 255,000 (1990) [30]
 261,000 (1994)[26]
 250,012 (2001) 284,589 (2010)[25]
 73 (2008)[28]
 18,589
Samoa 131,377 (1967)[29]
 164,000 (1990) [30]
 164,000 (1994)[26]
 178,173 (2003) 179,000 (2009)[27]
 N/A (2008)[28]
Sweden 7,765,981 (1967)[29]
 8,559,000 (1990) [30]
 8,794,000 (1994)[26]
 8,920,705 (2002) 9,354,462 (2009) 81 (2008)[28]
Finland 4,664,000 (1967)[29]
 4,986,000 (1990) [30]
 5,095,000 (1994)[26]
 5,175,783 (2002) 5,374,781 (2010) N/A (2008)[28]
Portugal 9,440,000 (1967)[29]
 10,525,000 (1990)[30]
 9,830,000 (1994)[26]
 10,355,824 (2001) 10,647,763[76] (2011) N/A (2008)[28]
Austria 7,323,981 (1967)[29]
 7,712,000 (1990) [30]
 8,031,000 (1994)[26]
 8,032,926 (2001) 8,404,252 (2011) N/A (2008)[28]
Libya 1,738,000 (1967)[29]
 4,545,000 (1990)[30]
 5,225,000(1994)[26]
 5,499,074 (2002) 6,420,000 (2009)[27]
 77 (2008)[28]
Peru 12,385,000 (1967)[29]
 21,550,000 (1990)[30]
 23,080,000(1994)[26]
 27,949,639 (2002) 29,496,000 (2010) 70 (2008)[28]
Guinea Bissau 528,000 (1967)[29]
 965,000 (1990) [30]
 1,050,000 (1994)[26]
 1,345,479 (2002) 1,647,000[27] (2009) 48 (2008)[28]
Angola 5,203,066 (1967)[29]
 10,020,000 (1990)[30]
 10,674,000 (1994)[26]
 10,766,500 (2003) 18,498,000[35][77] (2009) 38 (2008)[28]
Equatorial Guinea 277,000 (1967)[29]
 348,000 (1990)[30]
 389,000 (1994)[26]
 474,214 (2000) 676,000 (2009)[35]
 61 (2008)[28]
Benin 2,505,000 (1967)[29]
 4,736,000 (1990)[30]
 5,246,000 (1994)[26]
 8,500,500 (2002) 8,791,832 (2009) 59 (2008)[28]
Laos 2,770,000 (1967)[29]
 4,139,000 (1990)[30]
 4,742,000 (1994)[26]
 5,635,967 (2002) 6,800,000[78] (2011) 56 (2008)[28]
Nepal 10,500,000 (1967)[29]
 18,961,000 (1990)[30]
 21,360,000 (1994)[26]
 25,284,463 (2002) 29,331,000[35] (2009) - (2008)[28]
Iran 25,781,090 (1966)[29]
 54,608,000 (1990)[30]
 59,778,000 (1994)[26]
 66,622,704 (2002) 75,330,000 (2010)[79]
 71 (2008)[28]
Canada 20,014,880 (1966)[29]
 26,603,000 (1990)[30]
 29,248,000(1994)[26]
 31,081,900 (2001) 32,623,490 (2011)[80]
 81 (2008)[28]
United States 199,118,000 (1967)[29]
 249,995,000 (1990)[30]
 260,650,00(1994)[26]
 281,421,906 (2000) 308,745,538 (2010)[81]
 78 (2008)[28]
Uganda 7,931,000 (1967)[29]
 18,795,000 (1990)[30]
 20,621,000 (1994)[26]
 24,227,297 (2002) 32,369,558 (2009) 52 (2008)[28]


Notes

* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991.

† Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011.

‡ Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972.

# India and Sikkim merged in 1975.








































Population growth 1990–2012 (%)[82]
Africa 73.3%
Middle East 68.2%

Asia (excl. China)		 42.8%
China 19.0%

OECD Americas
 27.9%
Non-OECD Americas 36.6%
OECD Europe
 11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania
 11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
 -0.8%



Thousands of scooters make their way through the city of Hồ Chí Minh, Vietnam.



Growth by region


Population growth rates vary by world region, with the highest growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Europe. For example, from 1950 to 2010, Sub-Saharan African grew over three and a half times, from about 186 million to 856 million. On the other hand, Europe only increased by 35%, from 547 million in 1950 to 738 million in 2010. As a result of these varying population growths, Sub-Saharan Africa changed from 7.4% of world population in 1950 to 12.4% in 2010, while Europe declined from 22% to 11% in the same time period.
[83]



Into the future


Main article: Projections of population growth



Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE.




The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.


According to the UN's 2017 revision to its population projections, world population is projected to reach 11.2 billion by 2100 compared to 7.6 billion in 2017.[84][85] In 2011, Indian economist Sanjeev Sanyal disputed the UN's figures and argued that birth rates will fall below replacement rates in the 2020s. According to his projections, population growth will be only sustained till the 2040s by rising longevity, but will peak below 9 bn by 2050.[22] Conversely, a 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division projected that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[86] One of its authors, Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, says "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around 7 billion, would go up to 9 billion and level off or probably decline. We found there’s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue."[87]



See also




  • An Essay on the Principle of Population

  • Anthropocene

  • Baby boom

  • Biological exponential growth

  • Demographic history

  • Demographic transition

  • Density dependence

  • Doubling time

  • Fertility factor (demography)

  • Human overpopulation

  • Irruptive growth

  • List of countries by population growth rate


  • Natalism and Antinatalism

  • Population bottleneck

  • Population decline

  • Population dynamics

  • World population

  • World Scientists' Warning to Humanity




References





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External links




  • World Population Prospects, Website of the United Nations Population Division


  • Probabilistic Population Projections, 2nd Revision, Website of the United Nations Population Division


  • 2008 Essays on Population Growth Blue Planet United — Population Press


  • World population growth and trends 1950-2050 US Census


  • World population: focus on youth, Annual World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau

  • UN University annual "State of the Future" report, including updates on Millennium Project goals including balancing global population growth & resources


  • Population Growth Rate By Country, aggregated time series data from 1960 to present


  • BBC News - Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' - 08/12/06

  • Tsirel, S. V. 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 367–9. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004.


  • Rosling, Hans (25 January 2009). "What stops population growth?". Gapminder. Retrieved 2009-07-06.










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